Spin Master reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.41, missing consensus estimates of $0.536 by 23.5%. Revenue landed at $618.2 million, falling short of the expected $635.43 million. Digital Games surged 15.8% year-over-year while the core Toys segment declined 7.0%. The stock edged up 0.65% in pre-market trading following the March 5, 2026 announcement, signaling cautious investor optimism about the 2026 outlook despite the double miss.
About Spin Master
Spin Master Corp. (TSX: TOY / OTC: SNMSF) is a leading global children’s entertainment company headquartered at 225 King Street West, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Founded on March 26, 1994, by university friends Ronnen Harary, Anton Rabie, and Ben Varadi from the Ivey Business School at the University of Western Ontario, the company started with just $10,000 in seed capital and a novelty product called “Earth Buddies.”
Today, Spin Master operates across three reportable segments: Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games. The company designs, manufactures, licenses, and markets a broad portfolio of toys (including PAW Patrol, Melissa & Doug, Hatchimals, and Bakugan), produces multi-platform entertainment content, and develops digital games such as Toca Boca World and Piknik. Spin Master employs close to 3,000 team members globally across 29 offices spanning nearly 20 countries.
As of March 11, 2026, Spin Master’s market capitalization stands at approximately C$1.91 billion (roughly US$1.4 billion), with shares trading around C$19.03 on the TSX. The forward P/E ratio is approximately 10.08, while the trailing P/E stands at roughly 25.97 due to the full-year net loss. The company offers a quarterly dividend of C$0.12 per share (annualized C$0.48), yielding approximately 3.44%. The EV/EBITDA ratio is approximately 5.73 as of early March 2026.
Top Financial Highlights
- Total Revenue came in at $618.2 million, a decrease of 4.8% from $649.1 million in Q4 2024. Constant currency revenue was $607.4 million, a decline of 6.4%.
- Net Loss was $184.3 million or ($1.85) per share, compared to net income of $21.1 million or $0.21 per share in Q4 2024. The loss includes $229.1 million of non-cash impairment of goodwill and intangible assets related primarily to Melissa & Doug.
- Adjusted Net Income was $42.3 million or $0.41 per share (diluted), compared to $57.4 million or $0.55 per share in Q4 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $111.3 million, a modest decrease of $2.6 million year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 18.0% from 17.5%.
- Toys Segment Revenue declined 7.0% to $522.3 million, driven by lower Toy Gross Product Sales and higher markdowns to manage inventory levels.
- Entertainment Segment Revenue grew 2.9% to $42.5 million, driven by higher volume of content deliveries.
- Digital Games Segment Revenue surged 15.8% to $53.4 million, fueled by strategic distribution partnerships, higher in-game purchases in Toca Boca World, and subscription growth in Piknik.
- Operating Cash Flow was $194.3 million, compared to $203.4 million in Q4 2024.
- Free Cash Flow was $128.0 million, down from $175.0 million, primarily due to higher investment in leasehold improvements, computer software, and entertainment content.
- Full-Year Revenue totaled $2,112.9 million, a decrease of 6.6% from $2,263.0 million in 2024.
- Full-Year Gross Margin expanded 160 basis points to 54.2% from 52.6% in 2024, reflecting improved product mix and operational efficiencies. Q4 gross margin was 53.3%, down from 56.3% in Q4 2024.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents stood at $104.6 million as of December 31, 2025, with available liquidity of $566.9 million including committed credit facilities.
- Share Buybacks: Repurchased and cancelled 441,195 subordinate voting shares for $6.7 million in Q4 2025. Full-year repurchases totaled $46.6 million.
- 2026 Guidance: Revenue expected to be stable to low single-digit percentage growth; Adjusted EBITDA expected to show mid to high single-digit percentage growth compared to 2025.
Beat or Miss?
Spin Master missed consensus analyst estimates on both top and bottom lines in Q4 2025.
| Metric | Reported | Analyst Estimate | Difference |
| Revenue | $618.2M | $635.43M | -2.7% miss |
| Adjusted Diluted EPS | $0.41 | $0.54 | -23.5% miss |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $111.3M | N/A | Stable YoY (down $2.6M) |
| Net (Loss)/Income | ($184.3M) | N/A | Impacted by $229.1M impairment |
The EPS miss of 23.5% was notable and marked a significant deviation from prior quarters where the company had managed to meet or exceed expectations. Revenue shortfall was driven primarily by a continued slowdown in U.S. retailer orders amid ongoing tariff policy uncertainty.
What Leadership Is Saying?
“We navigated a challenging fourth quarter for U.S. toy sales, while increasing our POS, achieving double-digit gains in digital games, and strategically expanding the audience for PAW Patrol ahead of its third movie release. Entering 2026 we are setting the stage to return to sustainable growth by investing in innovation in our core toy portfolio and digital platforms, expanding into higher-growth categories, and accelerating collaboration across our creative centers to unlock the full potential of our portfolio and brands.” By Christina Miller, CEO, Spin Master
“The power of our financial model remained evident in 2025 as we generated more than $300 million in operating cash flows. This enabled us to make important investments into technology, supply chain diversification, toy innovation, new entertainment content and our digital platforms. We also returned more than $80 million in capital to shareholders through our dividend and share buybacks, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and prudent leverage.” Says Jonathan Roiter, CFO, Spin Master
Historical Performance (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)
| Category | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Change (%) |
| Total Revenue | $618.2M | $649.1M | -4.8% |
| Gross Profit (Full Year) | $1,145.3M | $1,190.9M | -3.8% |
| Net (Loss)/Income | ($184.3M) | $21.1M | n.m. |
| Adjusted Net Income | $42.3M | $57.4M | -26.3% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $111.3M | $113.9M | -2.3% |
| Operating Cash Flow | $194.3M | $203.4M | -4.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $128.0M | $175.0M | -26.9% |
| Toys Revenue | $522.3M | $561.7M | -7.0% |
| Entertainment Revenue | $42.5M | $41.3M | +2.9% |
| Digital Games Revenue | $53.4M | $46.1M | 15.80% |
The Toys segment’s decline was primarily due to global trade policy uncertainty and a continued slowdown in U.S. retailer orders. Higher markdowns and promotional activities further compressed performance. The Wheels & Action sub-category was a bright spot within Toys, growing 16.8% to $107.1 million, while Outdoor plummeted 52.4%.
Competitor Performance (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)
Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS)
| Category | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Change (%) |
| Revenue | $1,445.9M | $1,102.5M | +31.1% |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.51 | $0.46 | +228.3% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $372.2M | N/A | Strong beat |
| Adjusted Operating Profit | $315.0M | $113.0M | +178.8% |
| Operating Margin | 20.60% | 5.40% | +15.2 pts |
Hasbro delivered a blowout Q4 2025, driven by an 86% revenue surge in its Wizards of the Coast & Digital Gaming segment. Magic: The Gathering posted record quarterly revenue of $502.4 million, up 141% year-over-year. Hasbro beat EPS estimates by 59.3% and revenue estimates by 14.4%.
Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT)
| Category | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Change (%) |
| Net Sales | $1,766M | $1,650M | +7.0% |
| Net Income | $106.2M | $141.2M | -24.8% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.39 | $0.35 | +11.4% |
| Adjusted Operating Income | $160.0M | $161.0M | -0.6% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $234.0M | $249.0M | -6.00% |
Mattel reported Q4 2025 net sales of $1.77 billion, up 7% as reported but missing analyst estimates of $1.83 billion. EPS of $0.39 fell short of the $0.54 consensus by 27.8%. The adjusted gross margin declined to 46.0%, weighed down by higher input costs and discounting activity.
Competitive Summary
| Metric | Spin Master | Hasbro | Mattel |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | $618.2M | $1,445.9M | $1,766M |
| Q4 Revenue Growth (YoY) | -4.8% | +31.1% | +7.0% |
| vs. Estimates | Missed | Beat by 14.4% | Missed by 3.7% |
| Adj. EPS vs. Estimate | -23.5% miss | +59.3% beat | -27.8% miss |
| FY 2025 Revenue | $2,112.9M | $4,701.3M | $5,348M |
Hasbro stood out as the clear outperformer among the three major toy companies in Q4 2025, largely thanks to Magic: The Gathering’s extraordinary growth. Both Spin Master and Mattel missed analyst estimates on both EPS and revenue, reflecting the challenging macroeconomic environment for consumer discretionary spending and tariff-related headwinds affecting the global toy industry.
How the Market Reacted?
Despite missing both EPS and revenue estimates, Spin Master’s stock showed resilience following the March 5, 2026, earnings announcement. Shares rose 0.65% in pre-market trading, closing the session at C$18.58. The stock touched a 52-week low of C$17.88 on the earnings day before recovering, suggesting that much of the negative sentiment had already been priced in after a 42.75% decline throughout 2025.
In the days following, the stock stabilized around the C$18.80 to C$19.10 range, with trading volume elevated to approximately 140,000 to 145,000 shares daily. Analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus with a target price of approximately C$26.63, implying roughly 43% upside from current levels, although several firms have recently trimmed their targets.
The overall market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, as investors weigh the near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainty and U.S. toy market softness against the company’s digital growth trajectory, strong cash generation, and management’s commitment to returning to sustainable growth in 2026.
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