Introduction
Mortgage Origination And Delinquency Statistics: Mortgage origination is the first step in getting a home loan. It occurs when a borrower applies for a mortgage, and the lender approves the application. Origination activity indicates the health of the housing market and the ease or difficulty of obtaining credit.
Interest rates, home prices, and lending rules can quickly change the number of new mortgages issued. Mortgage delinquency occurs when borrowers fail to make mortgage payments. Rising delinquencies signal financial stress from job loss, higher costs, or lower savings. They can also warn of larger problems, such as defaults and foreclosures.
This article connects both ends of the mortgage journey: who is borrowing today, who is struggling to pay, and what these trends reveal about risk in the housing market.
Editor’s Choice
- The United States mortgage originations (new mortgages issued) rose to USD 524.42 billion in Q4 2025, up from USD 512.15 billion in Q3 2025.
- In 2026, 1-4 family mortgage debt outstanding is projected to increase from USD 14,753 billion in Q1 2026 to USD 14,833 billion in Q2 2026, USD 14,900 billion in Q3 2026, and USD 14,962 billion in Q4 2026.
- In Q4 2025, by loan type, the total seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased to 2.89% for conventional loans (+27 basis points quarter-over-quarter).
- The total United States loan delinquency rate (30+ days past due, excluding foreclosures) was 3.68%, down 4.20% month over month and 0.93% from last year.
- As of March 2025, in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metropolitan area, the 30+ days delinquency rate is 2.2%, the serious delinquency rate is 0.6%, and the foreclosure rate is 0.2%.
- Louisiana had the highest overall delinquency rate at 5.4%, which decreased by 0.1% year over year.
- 2.8% of loans were at least 30 days past due, including 1.4% at 30-59 days, 0.4% at 60-89 days, and 0.3% at 90-119 days.
- Rocket Companies (Rocket Mortgage) noted Q3 2025 adjusted revenue of USD 1.78 billion and adjusted net income of USD 158 million, while GAAP net income was a loss of USD 124 million, and closed mortgage origination volume was USD 32.4 billion (+14% year over year).
2026 Quarterly U.S. Mortgage Market
- MBA forecasts total housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,319 thousand in Q1 2026, 1,318 thousand in Q2 2026, 1,304 thousand in Q3 2026, and 1,298 thousand in Q4 2026, with the 2026 annual column at 1,310 thousand.
- Single-family housing starts at 914 thousand in Q1 2026, 926 thousand in Q2 2026, 946 thousand in Q3 2026, and 956 thousand in Q4 2026, and it forecasts “two or more” starts at 405 thousand in Q1 2026, 392 thousand in Q2 2026, 358 thousand in Q3 2026, and 342 thousand in Q4 2026.
- Existing home sales (SAAR) at 4,281 thousand in Q1 2026, 4,363 thousand in Q2 2026, 4,395 thousand in Q3 2026, and 4,429 thousand in Q4 2026, with the 2026 annual column at 4,367 thousand.
- New home sales (SAAR) at 722 thousand in Q1 2026, 726 thousand in Q2 2026, 737 thousand in Q3 2026, and 743 thousand in Q4 2026, with the 2026 annual column at 732 thousand.
- FHFA house price growth (year over year) at 0.6% in Q1 2026, 0.2% in Q2 2026, -0.2% in Q3 2026, and -0.3% in Q4 2026, with the 2026 annual column at -0.3%.
- The median price of an existing home was USD 418,700 in Q1 2026, USD 414,600 in Q2 2026, USD 409,400 in Q3 2026, and USD 410,700 in Q4 2026, with the 2026 annual column at USD 413,000.
- The median price of a new home was USD 413,500 in Q1 2026, USD 415,400 in Q2 2026, USD 410,800 in Q3 2026, and USD 412,500 in Q4 2026, with the 2026 annual column at USD 413,000.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is projected at 6.4% in Q1 2026, Q2 2026, Q3 2026, and Q4 2026, and the 10-year Treasury yield is forecast at 4.2% in each quarter of 2026.
Family Mortgage Origination Volume
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
| (USD billions) | |||
| Total 1-4 family originations | 546 | 569 | 566 |
| Purchase originations | 342 | 383 | 391 |
| Refinance originations | 204 | 186 | 175 |
| Refinance share | 37% | 33% | 31% |
By Loan Count
| Metrics | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 |
| (thousand loans) | ||||
| Total 1-4 family originations | 1,454 | 1,505 | 1,494 | 5,824 |
| Purchase originations | 865 | 968 | 989 | 3,695 |
| Refinance originations | 589 | 537 | 505 | 2,128 |
| Refinance share | 41% | 36% | 34% | 37% |
Mortgage Originations Trend
(Reference: tradingeconomics.com)
- The United States mortgage originations (new mortgages issued) rose to USD 524.42 billion in Q4 2025, up from USD 512.15 billion in Q3 2025.
- This quarter-over-quarter increase amounts to USD 12.27 billion, approximately 2.40%.
- Over the long term, U.S. mortgage originations averaged 572.09 billion USD from 2003 to 2025.
- Compared with the long-run average, Q4 2025 activity was 47.67 billion USD lower, roughly 8.33% below the historical mean.
Mortgage Delinquencies Increased In Q4 2025
(Source: mba.org)
- By delinquency stage, the 30-day delinquency rate fell 5 basis points to 2.07%, while the 60-day rate rose 16 basis points to 0.92% and the 90-day rate rose 16 basis points to 1.27%.
- By loan type, the total seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased to 2.89% for conventional loans (+27 basis points quarter-over-quarter).
- By loan type, the total seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased to 11.52% for FHA loans (+74 basis points quarter-over-quarter).
- Moreover, the total seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased to 4.60% for VA loans (+10 basis points quarter-over-quarter).
- Year over year, total delinquencies increased for conventional loans (+27 basis points) and FHA loans (+49 basis points), whereas they decreased for VA loans (-10 basis points).
- The share of loans in the foreclosure process was 0.53% at the end of Q4 2025, which was 3 basis points higher than the prior quarter and 8 basis points higher than one year earlier.
- The non-seasonally adjusted seriously delinquent rate (loans 90+ days late or in foreclosure) was 1.85%, up 24 basis points quarter over quarter and 17 basis points year over year.
- The largest quarter-over-quarter increases in overall delinquency rates were observed in Mississippi (+109 bps), Louisiana (+89 bps), Maryland (+87 bps), Oklahoma (+86 bps), and Indiana (+86 bps).
States With The Highest Overall Delinquency Rates
| State | Overall delinquency rate (March 2025) | Year-over-year change (March 2025) |
| Louisiana | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| Mississippi | 5.1% | -0.2% |
| Alabama | 3.8% | -0.1% |
| West Virginia | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Florida | 3.6% | 0.3% |
| Georgia | 3.6% | 0.1% |
Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates for Selected Metro Areas (March,
2025)
| Metropolitan Area | 30+ days delinquency rate | Serious delinquency rate | Foreclosure rate |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Houston-he Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
Mortgage Delinquency And Foreclosure Report (December, 2025)
(Source: mortgagetech.ice.com)
- The total United States loan delinquency rate (30+ days past due, excluding foreclosures) was 3.68%, down 4.20% month over month and 0.93% from last year.
- The total foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate was 0.44%, up 5.71% month over month and 22.86%.
- Total U.S. foreclosure starts were 40,000, up 53.96% month over month and 27.74%.
- The monthly prepayment rate (SMM) was 0.91%, up 9.92% month over month and 59.15% year over year.
- The total U.S. foreclosure sales were 7,100, up 6.68% month over month and 40.77% fom last year.
- The number of properties that were 30+ days past due but not in foreclosure was 2,025,000, which fell by 89,000 month over month and rose by 9,000 year over year.
- The number of properties that were 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure was 560,000, which increased by 30,000 month over month and increased by 19,000.
- The number of properties in pre-sale foreclosure inventory was 239,000, up 13,000 month over month and 47,000 year over year.
- The number of properties that were 30+ days past due or in foreclosure was 2,265,000, which fell by 76,000 month over month and rose by 56,000 year over year.
National Overview Of Loan Performance
(Source: bfldr.com)
- In March 2025, 2.8% of loans were at least 30 days past due, including 1.4% at 30-59 days, 0.4% at 60-89 days, and 0.3% at 90-119 days.
- Serious delinquencies (90+ days) were 1.0%, 120+ day late loans were 0.7%, and foreclosures stood at 0.3%.
Mortgage Lenders And Their Financial Performance
- Rocket Companies (Rocket Mortgage) noted Q3 2025 adjusted revenue of USD 1.78 billion and adjusted net income of USD 158 million, while GAAP net income was a loss of USD 124 million, and closed mortgage origination volume was USD 32.4 billion (+14% year over year).
- UWM Holdings (United Wholesale Mortgage) reported that in Q3 2025, loan origination volume was USD 41.7 billion, total revenue was USD 843.3 million, net income was USD 12.1 million, and total gain margin was 1.30%.
- PennyMac Financial Services reported full-year 2025 net income of USD 501.1 million with a 12% return on equity, total net revenue of USD 2.0 billion, and total loan production of USD 145.5 billion (+25% versus 2024).
- loanDepot recorded total revenue of USD 323.324 million and a net loss of USD 8.734 million in Q3 2025, along with loan origination volume of USD 6.534 billion and a pull-through weighted gain-on-sale margin of 3.39%.
- Guild Holdings (Guild Mortgage) reported Q3 2025 total originations of USD 7.4 billion, net revenue of USD 307.4 million, net income attributable to Guild of USD 33.3 million, and a gain-on-sale margin of about 3.47% (347 bps).
- Onity Group (PHH Mortgage) reported full-year 2025 net income of USD 185 million and an ROE of 35%. It also reported originations up 43% to USD 43 billion and total servicing UPB of USD 328 billion as of December 31, 2025.
- Rithm Capital (Newrez) confirmed full-year 2025 GAAP net income of USD 567.2 million and stated that Newrez generated pre-tax operating income of USD 1.1 billion and 20% operating ROE for full-year 2025.
- Meanwhile, the total servicing UPB was USD 852 billion at year-end 2025 (+1% year over year), and the full-year 2025 funded production volume was USD 63.3 billion (+7% year over year).
- Better Home & Finance cited Q3 2025 revenue of about USD 44 million and a net loss of about USD 39 million, with funded loan volume of about USD 1.2 billion and funded loan volume growth of 56% year over year (excluding a discontinued partnership).
- Wells Fargo reported full-year 2025 mortgage loan originations of USD 26.3 billion, total mortgage banking income of USD 769 million (including net servicing income of USD 619 million), and a home-lending 30+ day delinquency rate of 0.31% at December 31, 2025.
Conclusion
Mortgage origination and delinquency move together because lenders’ underwriting and pricing decisions during loan approval directly affect borrowers’ ability to repay the mortgage over time. When rates and costs increase, many households experience financial strain and miss payments. Delinquency risk is higher when loans are originated with high debt-to-income ratios, low savings, or very small down payments.
Lenders can mitigate this risk through clear rules, rigorous income verification, and realistic affordability assessments. Early support, like reminders and repayment options, also helps. In short, better loan quality at the start leads to fewer delinquencies and a more stable mortgage market.
FAQ
Who are the main people involved in a mortgage?
The borrower, lender/loan officer, mortgage broker, underwriter, appraiser, title/escrow agent, servicer, and investor.
What are the usual steps in mortgage origination?
Apply, submit the required documents, obtain approval, sign the paperwork, and receive the loan funds.
What happens when a mortgage becomes delinquent?
If anyone misses a payment, they may incur late fees, receive reminders, and have their information reported to credit bureaus.
When does a late mortgage payment show on my credit report?
Usually, when you are 30 days late, payment within 30 days is not reported.
How do servicers and investors track missed payments?
They track delinquency by the number of days a payment is past due (30, 60, or 90+ days), and servicers report monthly updates to reflect the loan’s current status, including any assistance plan or foreclosure action.
What should I do first if I can’t pay my mortgage?
Call your mortgage servicer as soon as possible, explain your situation, and ask whether you qualify for forbearance or a repayment plan.
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