Ondas Inc. (Nasdaq: ONDS) posted revised preliminary Q4 2025 revenue of $29.1–$30.1M and full year 2025 revenue of $49.7–$50.7M, both ahead of prior guidance. Net income surged to $82.9–$83.4M for Q4, driven largely by a ~$102M warrant liability fair-value gain. Final results are due March 25, 2026. After-hours movement was muted; shares have declined approximately 22% over the past month amid broader market volatility despite the upbeat print.
About Ondas Inc.
Ondas Inc. (Nasdaq: ONDS) is a West Palm Beach, Florida-headquartered provider of autonomous systems, robotics, and mission-critical connectivity solutions for defense, security, and industrial markets. The company was previously known as Ondas Holdings Inc. and rebranded in early 2026. It operates through three business units: Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS), Ondas Capital, and Ondas Networks.
OAS delivers AI-enabled air and ground robotic platforms, counter-UAS technologies, and autonomous sensing systems deployed across defense forces and government agencies in more than 25 countries. Ondas Networks provides mission-critical wireless connectivity via its FullMAX platform, a software-defined broadband solution built on the IEEE 802.16t standard for rail, utilities, oil and gas, and government networks.
As of early 2026, ONDS carries a market cap of approximately $4.23–$4.98 billion. The stock has a beta of 2.47, signaling elevated volatility. The company does not pay a dividend and currently holds a negative P/E ratio as it remains in a growth and investment phase. As of December 31, 2025, the company held cash and cash equivalents of approximately $551 million, and subsequently raised approximately $1 billion in a capital event on January 12, 2026.
Top Financial Highlights
- Q4 2025 Revenue of $29.1–$30.1 million, above prior guidance of $27–$29 million
- Full Year 2025 Revenue of $49.7–$50.7 million, ahead of prior guidance of $47.6–$49.6 million
- Q4 2025 Net Income of $82.9–$83.4 million, a dramatic swing from a net loss of $(10.3) million in Q4 2024
- Full Year 2025 Net Income of $50.4–$50.9 million, compared to a net loss of $(38.0) million in full year 2024
- Net income inflated by a ~$102 million non-cash gain from a net change in the fair value of warrant liabilities
- Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) of $(9.9)–$(9.4) million, versus $(7.0) million in Q4 2024, reflecting ongoing operating investment
- Full Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) of $(31.5)–$(31.0) million, compared to $(28.5) million in full year 2024
- OAS segment was the primary revenue growth driver, with $3.6M in Q4 2024 growing into the majority of Q4 2025 revenue
- Backlog surged to $65.3 million as of December 31, 2025, a 180% increase from $23.3 million on November 13, 2025
- Cash on hand approximately $551 million at year-end 2025, growing to over $1.5 billion pro forma including the January 2026 capital raise
- Full Year 2026 Revenue Guidance reiterated at $170–$180 million, representing more than a 3x increase over 2025
- Stock-based compensation for full year 2025 was $16.0 million versus $1.3 million in full year 2024, reflecting rapid team expansion
Beat or Miss?
The revised preliminary figures represent an upward revision from the initial March 9 preliminary release, driven by updated accounting treatment of warrant liabilities.
| Metric | Reported (Q4 2025) | Prior Guidance / Expected | Difference / Analysis |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | $29.1–$30.1M | $27–$29M (January 2026 guidance) | Beat by up to $3.1M |
| Full Year 2025 Revenue | $49.7–$50.7M | $47.6–$49.6M | Beat by up to $3.1M |
| Q4 2025 Net Income | $82.9–$83.4M | Net loss expected (pre-revision) | Swing driven by ~$102M warrant gain |
| Full Year 2025 Net Income | $50.4–$50.9M | Net loss of $(52.8)–$(53.3)M (March 9 report) | Revised upward by ~$103M |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | $(9.9)–$(9.4)M | $(11.4)–$(10.9)M (March 9 report) | Improved slightly |
| Full Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | $(31.5)–$(31.0)M | $(32.9)–$(32.4)M (March 9 report) | Improved slightly |
| FY 2026 Revenue Guidance | $170–$180M | N/A (consensus ~$140.2M prior) | 25% above prior internal target |
What Leadership Is Saying?
CEO Eric Brock on strategy and vision: “2025 has been a defining year for Ondas, with record results, expanding customer programs, and clear validation of our multi-domain autonomy strategy. These new orders underscore the sustained, global demand we are seeing for autonomous air and ground systems and advanced counter-UAS capabilities. Governments and critical infrastructure operators are turning to Ondas for solutions that deliver mission assurance at scale. With one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry and a broadening technology and operating platform, we are well positioned to build on this momentum into 2026 and beyond.”
CFO / Networks CEO on financials and margins: “We are encouraged by the broadening industry acceptance of dot16 across all AAR-owned spectrum bands, and especially by the enthusiasm from multiple Class 1 railroads for the opportunities emerging in the 160 MHz network. The Proof-of-Concept programs we have co-designed with our railroad partners scheduled to launch on three separate properties in Q4 2025 and early 2026 represent important milestones that we expect will lead to full productization and commercialization in 2026.”
Historical Performance
Ondas produced record revenues in 2025, reversing a sharp decline from 2023 to 2024. The revenue swing from $7.2M in 2024 to approximately $50M in 2025 reflects the ramp-up of OAS defense contracts and acquisitions including Sentrycs, Apeiro Motion, 4M Defense, and Roboteam.
| Category | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Change (%) |
| Revenue | $29.1–$30.1M | $4.1M | +609% to +634% |
| Net Income (Loss) | $82.9–$83.4M | $(10.3)M | Swing to profit (warrant-driven) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $(9.9)–$(9.4)M | $(7.0)M | Widened ~34–41% |
| Stock-Based Compensation | $6.8M | $0.3M | 2167% |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $3.0M | $1.2M | 150% |
| Category | Full Year 2025 | Full Year 2024 | Change (%) |
| Revenue | $49.7–$50.7M | $7.2M | +589% to +604% |
| Net Income (Loss) | $50.4–$50.9M | $(38.0)M | Swing to profit (warrant-driven) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $(31.5)–$(31.0)M | $(28.5)M | Widened ~9–10% |
| Gross Profit (FY) | N/A (preliminary) | $0.3M | N/A |
| Operating Expenses (FY) | N/A (preliminary) | $35.0M | N/A |
Competitor Performance
Ondas competes within the autonomous systems, counter-UAS, and defense robotics space. Key peers include Red Cat Holdings (RCAT), Kratos Defense (KTOS), and AeroVironment (AVAV). The table below compares the most recent available Q4 or equivalent quarter for each.
| Company | Q4 2025 Revenue | Q4 Prior Year Revenue | YoY Change | Net Income (Q4) | Key Note |
| Ondas (ONDS) | $29.1–$30.1M | $4.1M | +609%–634% | $82.9–$83.4M (warrant-driven) | Revised preliminary; final due March 25 |
| Red Cat (RCAT) | $26.2M | $1.3M | 1985% | $(19.7)M net loss | Stock rose 8.1% post-report |
| Kratos Defense (KTOS) | $345.1M | $283.1M | 21.90% | $5.9M | Adj. EBITDA $34.1M; book-to-bill 1.3x |
| AeroVironment (AVAV) | $408.0M (Q3 FY2026) | $167.6M (Q3 FY2025) | 143% | $(156.6)M loss | Revenue missed estimates by ~15% |
| Company | Full Year 2025 Revenue | Full Year 2024 Revenue | YoY Change |
| Ondas (ONDS) | $49.7–$50.7M | $7.2M | +590%–604% |
| Red Cat (RCAT) | $40.7M | $15.6M | 161% |
| Kratos Defense (KTOS) | $1.347B | $1.136B | 18.60% |
| AeroVironment (AVAV) | ~$1.6B TTM | N/A | N/A |
How the Market Reacted?
On March 10, 2026, following the initial preliminary Q4 and full year 2025 revenue announcement, ONDS shares rose approximately 3% to around $10.01 intraday on volume of roughly 88.2 million shares. Analysts at Needham reiterated a Buy rating with a $17 price target, and Stifel maintained a Buy rating with an $18 target on the same day. Despite the positive revenue surprise, shares have declined roughly 22% over the trailing month as of mid-March 2026, likely reflecting broader market sentiment, insider selling activity, and concerns around the stock’s 480% gain over the prior 12 months creating a valuation reset.
The consensus rating remains “Moderate Buy” with a $16.25 average price target across eight analyst ratings. The revised March 20 release did not trigger a significant after-hours move, as the primary change was an accounting reclassification of the warrant liability gain rather than a fundamental revenue surprise; the final results call on March 25, 2026 is expected to provide more granular segment commentary and full P&L detail.
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